How can I interpret the results of a simulation of ARX process in Matlab? -

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मैंने निम्न कमांड को सिम्युलेटेड किया है: 

  process_arx = idpoly ([1 -0.5] , [0 0 0.6 -0.2], 1,1,1, 'नोविस व्हरिअस', 0.05, 'टी', 1); ब्रिटेन = आईडीिनपुट (2555, 'पीआरबीएस', [0 0.2], [-1 1]); yk = सिम (process_arx, ब्रिटेन, 'शोर');

और यूके और वाईकी के पहले 10 हैं: 

  [uk (1:10) yk (1:10)] ans = -1.0000 0.1202 -1.0000 0.4702 -1.0000 -0.8700 -1.0000 -0.6422 -1.0000 -0.6498 -1.0000 -1.0173 -1.0000 -1.0056 -1.0000 -0.8262 -1.0000 -0.0129 -1.0000 0.2128   
 जहां तक ​​मैं समझता हूँ मैं क्या कर रहा हूं निम्नलिखित समीकरण का अनुकरण कर रहा है:  
  y (t) = 0.5 * y (t-1) + 0.6 * u (t-2) -0.2 * u (टी -3 ) उदाहरण के लिए, यदि मुझे y (4) चाहिए, तो मुझे गणना करना है:  y (4) = 0.5 * y (3) + 0.6 * u (2) -0.2 * यू (1)  
 
 मानों से: y (3) = -0.87; यू (2) = -1 और यू (1) = -1 
 
 y (4) -0.835 होना चाहिए और सिमुलेशन ने मुझे -0.6422 दिया! 
 
 मैं सही ढंग से व्याख्या कैसे कर सकता हूं सिमुलेशन परिणाम?

मुझे लगता है कि आप इस बात पर ध्यान नहीं देते हैं कि मॉडल नवाचार ई (टी) Stochastic हैं, यानी 

  y (टी) = 0.5 * y (टी -1) + 0.6 * यू (टी -2) -0.2 * यू (टी -3) + ई (टी)

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